WHAT ARE THE CHARTS TRYING TO TELL ME?

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

WHAT COULD OR SHOULD I  DO ABOUT IT?

Then do indeed take action!  We are finding this approach is incredibly helpful in understanding and acting on the messages T12M Charts continue to tell us.

Very best, Kraig

CEO Monthly Letter

Just try to always include in your letter the GOAL, How we’re Doing against the Goal, and some Cheerleading (often signaled by an ! exclamation point).  You can also add a bit about how you as CEO see things right now (be truthful in tough times and also always try to be positive, add the “silver lining” to your close).

As always, hope this helps you!  Very best, Kraig

Economic Prospects – Brian & Alan Beaulieu 603-796-2500 www.itreconomics.com
Financing/M&A – Brad Bulkley 214-692-5476 www.bulkleycapital.com
Receivables/Cashflow – Abe WalkingBear Sanchez 719-276-0595 www.armg-usa.com
Inventory & Supply Chain – Henry Camp 502-551-2359 www.ideallc.com
Sales & Topline Growth – Chuck Reaves 770-965-5595 www.chuckreaves.com
Enterprise Software – Andy Vabulas 770-368-4000 www.ibis.com
Culture Development – Don Schmincke 410-960-0442 www.sraleadership.com
Leadership/Management – Vistage: 800-274-2367 www.vistage.com
Leadership/Management – Convene: Chris Duncan 877-236-2236 www.convenenow.com
Overall Profitable Growth – Kraig Kramers 404-229-3027 www.ceotools.com

As always, these thoughts are meant to improve your business…and…feedback is always welcome!      Very best wishes,  Kraig ————- PS – We’ve added some other resources suggested by our followers:

Leadership / Management (CDN)  Mike Craig 416-452-4987 www.ceoglobalnetwork.com        
Core Values / Culture Pat Murray 510-549-2388  www.jpmassocs.com
Negotiation Jack Kaine  816-529-8765 jwkaineltd@mac.com  
Strategy Rick Houcek 770-91-9122 www.soarwitheagles.com
Biz Execution – Dan Barnett 775-843-0517 dan.barnett@vistage.com                         Strategy - John Johnson 530-758-0203 johne57@aol.com
Sales Coaching - Chuck Bauer (no phone) www.chuckbauer.com
Small Biz Software - Mike Taus 541-647-3115 www.codebenders.com

As background, we continue to experience a very slow (if any) recession recovery, which some of us have labeled “regression.”   Clearly, the first-and-foremost tool is one that watches and forecasts CASH for your business; the tool is the Cash Manager at www.ceotools.com.  Just print out the free PDF under New Tools Catalog at our website and design your own or download the Excel version.  Also, take a look at Abe WalkingBear Sanchez’ unique tools for optimizing credit-and-collections to aid your cashflow ( www.armg-usa.com ).

Next big tool is “What Causes Sales” available in the same place; this one helps your business grow your top line (revenue).

Third tool is the “Measure-Up Dashboard” for tracking and managing the many success factors in business.  If nothing else, just start a dashboard with two or three T12M charts…you’ll be absolutely amazed at what you’ll discover about your own business.  Remeber to ask three questions about your T12M charts:  what are the charts telling me?  why is this happening?  what could/should we do about it?

And, last but not least, how about joining a Vistage/TEC CEO or similar group, staying in one and talking more about volume and cash, and/or suggesting direct reports join a Vistage KEY group to enhance their management and leadership skills and speed?

Again, hope these thoughts are helpful.  With best regards, Kraig

The economy is expanding in general versus last year, but it’s still way below 2007-2008 levels; certain sectors are growing nicely, others still dropping, and many are still stagnant.  Prices of many commodities and other products/services are skyrocketing, while housing continues downward significantly again.  Geographically, things are sporadic as well.  While the outlook ahead is “up” — it’s very mixed and probably very challenging for individual businesses.  Finally, while loosening slightly, bank lending is still very slow to spotty to non-existent.  Rising costs portend rising interest rates which in turn point to banks having to lend more to maintain their earnings levels.  But the inflation-push, interest-rate-growth, bank-lending equation could take quite some time and be highly selective by industry.

So, expansion for your business depends on what your specific industry looks like now and over the next two-three years, what your locale looks like, what your raw materials (including labor) look like, plus what happens in November 2012.  A real mixed bag!

We do see acquisitions picking up, selective hiring improving, and silo-ed growth happening.  Indeed, it is time to expand for some businesses, albeit carefully!  This means considerably more due diligence and backup cash/credit for acquisitions, for organic expansion, and for any other form of growth you might contemplate.  Safety margin and caution are the keywords.

Some tools for assessing your outlook are at www.ceotools.com in the form of the Valuation Tool, Interview and Retention Tools, plus 5-Charts and Forecaster Tools.  Other tools are at www.usdebtclock.org and www.itreconomics.com for assessing the emerging economic scenario.

If this helps your decision on whether and when to expand and how, we’ve succeeded here.  We welcome feedback on improving these tools and tips.

Very best regards,
Kraig Kramers

We only mention all that because taken in total, it stalls our economy.  Business can’t possibly see much of the future when Government can’t decide, so business doesn’t invest or strike out for a better tomorrow while worried about survivng the present.  And then even when Government does decide, it opts for momentary, temporary, delayed, and tentative stability in exchange for long-term growth and prosperity.

This in turn makes a solid forecast very hard to come by, other than to say the remainder of 2011 looks rocky from a credit, cash, and growth standpoint for most industries and most businesses, with some opportunistic options for a few businesses and locales.

With that in mind, we should experience a continued slow, sporadic, and siloed recovery over last year (not anywhere near back to 2007-2008 levels) but still creating opportunity for some.  As business leaders we must choose our inidvidual business paths accordingly, cautiously, and with frequent “re-looks” at the near-term future.  For me this implies planning only about 3-months out at a time, reviewing and renewing planned action steps perhaps even every month.  And, keeping our audiences informed (employees, suppliers and customers) is critical to their buy-in and continued support.

Hope this helps in planning the rest of this year.  Let us know how to improve these ideas when you have a chance.

Very best regards,  Kraig

All are under ongoing cash/credit pressure due to the dearth of bank lending but also because growth gobbles cash (working capital) while decline usually uses cash when businesses suffer bottom-line losses.

The uncertainty of current politics and the  actuality of economic evolution as it occurs suggest strongly we tailor the “12 Seasons of Business” in 2011 to respond to changes as they happen, month-by-month.  Some industry segments and locales will show growth while others decline; this plus the probability of State and local government defaults (bankruptcies?) and unknown Federal response, all augur for adaptiveness by business along the way.  So, the following is our best guess at topics for 2011:

   1 – Get more sales & volume: new plus tried-true tips.  Do more for your customers!
   2 – Constrict and control costs & expenses.  Cash and credit will be tight all year.
   3 – Positively inculturate your business…people tools!   
   4 – Economic re-forecast…based on Government demeanor & actions in Q1.
   5 – Grow the people side…grow productivity!
   6 – What’s new in the TOOLKIT?  Are hiring or acquisitions in order yet?  How to do them?
   7 – Economic re-set:  where are we now, what’s the 6-month outlook?
   8 – The very best tools and tips of 2010!  Refresher and summary…
   9 – Who can help me in 2011 and beyond?
  10 – Economic re-look:  now what’s it looking like, what should we plan and do?
  11 – OK, we’re still tight on capital…where to turn?
  12 – Re-cap a mixed/troubled year and a brighter look ahead!

We’ll offer tips and tools on each topic as we progress through the year.  Hope your 2011 is prosperous and profitable!  Very best wishes, Kraig

With those caveats said, I’ve been asked to talk “Acquire/Exit” a lot recently and I also became a Director of a boutique investment banking firm (Bulkley Capital) that takes a unique, personal, customized and very different approach with clients nationwide.  They advise you on strategy, then tailor their approach to your needs, and achieve your M&A event while assuring the best process along the way. 

We’re including a piece from Bulkely Capital which highlights the five most Common Seller Mistakes — just click to view/print PDF.  Through my own experience with over 70 deals, I’ve found this kind of quick-read summary to be hugely helpful when considering that most important M&A step.  Have a look…I think you’ll pick up something of value!

Please feel free to contact me or Brad Bulkley directly with any questions or for an  introduction, very personalized service, and of course complete confidentiality.

With best regards,
Kraig Kramers

WSJ Great Article \”Tough Times Call for New Plans\” 

 With best wishes, Kraig